It's Time to Pull the Plug on the No-Tax Pledge, Before it Wrecks our Economy
Public policy is about making choices. It is about making the best use of the scarce resources that are available to accomplish our desired policy result. Resources used one way cannot be used another; we have to make choices. Now, in the midst of the worst national economic crisis since the Great Depression, with meager rates of national economic growth and persistently high and extended periods of unemployment, the stakes riding on our policy choices have never been higher.
The Republicans’ consensus position is clear. Do not raise taxes. In Speaker Boehner’s words, “ It’s a very simple equation. Tax increases destroy jobs.” Grover Norquist’s pledge to oppose any and all tax increases has been signed by 236 of 242 Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives (98%) and 40 of 47 Republican members of the U.S. Senate (85%).
The first question to ask about the Norquist no tax pledge is whether it is fair, that is, is it fair that the wealthy pay no more than they do now and that our budget deficit be reduced solely by decimating programs that most Americans need? Simply considering where the gains in wealth have gone over the past 30 years, the answer is hell no, that's not fair.
From 1979 to 2007, income grew by 95% among the wealthiest 20% of Americans while it grew by only 25% among the other 80% of Americans. Even more shocking, income among the top 1% of Americans grew by 281%. Put another way, for every dollar of real economic growth generated over the past 30 years, 58 cents has gone to the top 1% of households. Case closed.
But fairness does not end the inquiry. Indeed, if raising taxes on the wealthy would hurt the economy and destroy jobs, as Speaker Boehner contends, then while it might be fair it would not be good public policy. The fact is, however, that concentrating wealth in the hands of the few is not only unfair, it is ruinous to the economy.
That is why the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in its January 2010 report, “Policies for Increasing Economic Growth and Employment in 2010 and 2011,” concluded that extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, when compared to other policy alternatives, would be the worst possible way to spur economic growth and job creation. The reason, according to the CBO, is simple. When the economy is weak, spending is needed to stimulate it. But wealthy people, given an extra dollar, are much more likely to save it while lower income people are much more likely to spend it, and spending it is what increases demand, spurs economic growth and creates jobs.
The CBO report compared the impact on economic growth and job creation of various policy alternatives. The CBO found that compared with extending the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy:
- Extending unemployment insurance benefits would generate 5 times as much economic growth and create 4 times more jobs.
- Reducing employees’ payroll taxes would generate 2 times as much economic growth and create 1.5 times more jobs.
- Reducing employers’ payroll taxes would generate 3 times as much economic growth and create 3 times more jobs.
- Investing in infrastructure would generate 4 times as much economic growth and create 3 times more jobs.
- Providing aid to states for purposes other than infrastructure would generate 3 times as much economic growth and 2 times more jobs.
The jobs plan announced by President Obama on September 8 includes all of the elements that the CBO found would stimulate economic growth and create jobs. His proposal would extend unemployment insurance benefits for another year; halve the payroll tax paid by employees to 3.1% through 2012; create new reductions in payroll taxes for certain employers; invest in infrastructure including building, repairing and modernizing roads, bridges, railroads, airports and 35,000 schools; and provide aid to states to pay for teachers and first responders.
The deficit reduction plan proposed by President Obama on September 19 would largely pay for his jobs plan, and reduce our long-term budget deficit, by ending the Bush tax cuts for wealthy Americans.
Earlier this year, Congressman Paul Ryan proposed a long-term budget and deficit reduction plan. Ryan’s plan would have dismantled Medicare and turned it into a private insurance voucher program with massive cost shifts to beneficiaries. It also would have cut funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly Food Stamps) by nearly 20% and converted it into a block grant completely unresponsive to increased need during a recession.
Ryan’s proposed budget was the first salvo in the new Congress’s economic mantra of achieving deficit reduction and stimulating the economy solely by cutting spending while abiding by their pledge to Grover Norquist never to raise taxes. This dogma, so misguided and destructive to restoring our country’s prosperity, was put in perspective by David Stockman, President Reagan’s leading economic adviser as his Director of the Office of Budget and Management, in his assessment of Ryan’s plan:
"I think the biggest problem is revenues. It is simply unrealistic to say that raising revenue isn't part of the solution. It's a measure of how far off the deep end Republicans have gone with this religious catechism about taxes."
The author wishes to thank Shriver Center policy intern Michael Elsen-Rooney for his research assistance.

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